Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
