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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.